Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 08:49, is the safest bet: 37% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2879 American Flight history →	MRY 12:36	DFW 18:17	34%	12%	1.9%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 06:04 → PHX 08:14AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	7h 06m	100%	77%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Denver	DEN 18:50 → DFW 21:56UA 1565	7h 27m	97%	64%
Alaska Details →	MRY 14:53 → SAN 16:29AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m San Diego	SAN 17:48 → DFW 22:40AS 689	5h 47m	90%	62%
American Details →	MRY 12:49 → PHX 14:55AA 3527 · flown by Envoy	3h 39m Phoenix	PHX 18:34 → DFW 23:06AA 556	8h 17m	100%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	54m San Francisco	SFO 10:32 → DFW 16:15UA 2842	5h 26m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON