Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5523 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 13:54	LAX 15:35	13%	8%	0.9%	92%
UA 1150 United	MRY 10:28	LAX 11:58	16%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MRY 06:04 → PHX 08:14AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Phoenix	PHX 10:48 → LAX 12:21AA 2027	6h 17m	100%	80%
American Details →	MRY 12:49 → PHX 14:55AA 3527 · flown by Envoy	2h 02m Phoenix	PHX 16:57 → LAX 18:28AA 1331	5h 39m	100%	73%
United Details →	MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506	5h 06m	93%	71%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Denver	DEN 17:44 → LAX 19:16UA 1753	6h 47m	93%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	54m San Francisco	SFO 10:32 → LAX 12:04UA 1164	3h 15m	53%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON