tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, QX 2294 at 17:29, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2294 Horizon MRY 17:29 SEA 19:42 29% 6% 2.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:49 → PHX 14:55AA 3527 · flown by Envoy 3h 00m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 16m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 14:53 → SAN 16:29AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m San Diego SAN 19:25 → SEA 22:13AS 1373 7h 20m 99% 64%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:56UA 2767 8h 27m 98% 55%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m San Francisco SFO 11:59 → SEA 14:03UA 2744 5h 14m 91% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MRY 09:39 → SAN 11:15AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Diego SAN 12:08 → SEA 14:54AS 1368 5h 15m 70% 44%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:36 → DFW 18:17AA 2879 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:31 → SEA 21:54AA 2009 9h 18m 75% 37%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 14:53 → SAN 16:29AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest 49m San Diego SAN 17:18 → SEA 20:05AS 692 5h 12m 64% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON