Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5249 at 11:56 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–44%.

Safest bet that day OO 5249 MRY 11:56 → SFO 13:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5502 MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5249 SkyWest	MRY 11:56	SFO 13:08	28%	17%	1.0%	no record
OO 4758 SkyWest	MRY 14:28	SFO 15:19	37%	17%	1.0%	no record
UA 5502 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MRY 08:49	SFO 09:38	44%	25%	1.1%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON