Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1160 Delta Flight history →	MSN 05:48	ATL 08:57	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2681 Delta Flight history →	MSN 13:46	ATL 16:59	7%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 09:06 → MSP 10:31DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	6h 16m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:06DL 1036	8h 03m	98%	85%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → ATL 13:44UA 2684	6h 03m	100%	84%
United Details →	MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:45UA 2137	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 09:28 → ATL 12:25UA 530	4h 45m	97%	79%
American Details →	MSN 08:13 → CLT 11:26AA 1002	3h 04m Charlotte	CLT 14:30 → ATL 15:56AA 5175 · flown by PSA	6h 43m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4765 · flown by Endeavor	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	6h 20m	97%	74%
American Details →	MSN 15:08 → PHL 18:32AA 5334 · flown by PSA	1h 54m Philadelphia	PHL 20:26 → ATL 22:41AA 443	6h 33m	99%	67%
American Details →	MSN 07:15 → DFW 09:48AA 797	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:25 → ATL 16:43AA 2398	8h 28m	98%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON