tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4391 Republic MSN 08:28 BOS 12:16 9% 3% 0.8% no record
YX 5849 Republic MSN 14:25 BOS 18:04 17% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855 5h 53m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSN 06:02 → DCA 09:27AA 5374 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Washington DCA 10:54 → BOS 12:29AA 1015 5h 27m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Chicago ORD 09:23 → BOS 12:55UA 1367 5h 14m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSN 09:06 → MSP 10:31DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 13:27 → BOS 17:24DL 2558 7h 18m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSN 06:58 → LGA 10:31AA 4490 · flown by Republic 3h 37m New York LGA 14:08 → BOS 15:44AA 4430 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:45UA 2137 2h 40m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BOS 14:02UA 1606 6h 22m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Newark EWR 12:15 → BOS 13:32UA 1669 6h 03m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 1h 42m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → BOS 19:11DL 2591 6h 08m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSN 18:32 → DTW 20:58DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m Detroit DTW 21:59 → BOS 23:59DL 1187 4h 27m 75% 62%
UnitedDetails → MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet 1h 08m Chicago ORD 20:08 → BOS 23:32UA 1365 4h 47m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON