Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1002 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1002 American Flight history →	MSN 08:13	CLT 11:26	12%	4%	0.9%	93%
AA 2443 American	MSN 14:15	CLT 17:27	24%	7%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 43m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSN 09:06 → MSP 10:31DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819	6h 21m	99%	83%
American Details →	MSN 06:58 → LGA 10:31AA 4490 · flown by Republic	1h 39m New York	LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150	6h 16m	100%	83%
American Details →	MSN 06:02 → DCA 09:27AA 5374 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Washington	DCA 11:59 → CLT 13:28AA 761	6h 26m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4765 · flown by Endeavor	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	4h 24m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:46 → ATL 16:59DL 2681	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132	5h 21m	98%	74%
American Details →	MSN 12:14 → DCA 15:40AA 5221 · flown by PSA	2h 10m Washington	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	6h 23m	96%	73%
American Details →	MSN 09:46 → ORD 10:45AA 3923 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:23AA 1409	5h 37m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON