Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 797 American Flight history →	MSN 07:15	DFW 09:48	14%	6%	0.9%	77%
AA 1141 American	MSN 11:35	DFW 14:00	20%	7%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSN 06:02 → DCA 09:27AA 5374 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Washington	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	8h 21m	100%	81%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:13UA 441	6h 32m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	6h 49m	98%	79%
American Details →	MSN 06:58 → LGA 10:31AA 4490 · flown by Republic	2h 22m New York	LGA 12:53 → DFW 15:52AA 1609	8h 54m	100%	77%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	3h 35m Denver	DEN 13:55 → DFW 17:01UA 578	8h 11m	99%	75%
United Details →	MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:45UA 2137	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → DFW 11:29UA 528	4h 49m	88%	73%
American Details →	MSN 08:13 → CLT 11:26AA 1002	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	8h 45m	99%	70%
American Details →	MSN 12:14 → DCA 15:40AA 5221 · flown by PSA	1h 31m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	7h 27m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSN 13:03 → ORD 14:12AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 15:02 → DFW 17:38AA 2429	4h 35m	73%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON