Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 3482 at 06:29, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:29	EWR 09:50	6%	3%	2.1%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 33m	96%	80%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 09:18 → EWR 12:30UA 2238	4h 49m	99%	78%
United Details →	MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:45UA 2137	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	6h 37m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSN 09:06 → MSP 10:31DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866	6h 47m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSN 18:06 → DTW 20:23DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	4h 19m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:46 → ATL 16:59DL 2681	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 08m	97%	65%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	1h 17m Denver	DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233	7h 41m	94%	64%
American Details →	MSN 15:31 → ORD 16:37AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549	6h 59m	100%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON