Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4490 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSN 06:58	LGA 10:31	5%	3%	1.6%	94%
YX 5664 Republic	MSN 08:40	LGA 11:59	6%	3%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 09:06 → MSP 10:31DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756	6h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	8h 02m	98%	85%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669	5h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MSN 12:03 → MSP 13:33DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → LGA 19:00DL 2732	5h 57m	97%	83%
United Details →	MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:45UA 2137	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → LGA 14:30UA 529	6h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:46 → ATL 16:59DL 2681	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	6h 42m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MSN 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4765 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669	6h 05m	97%	78%
American Details →	MSN 15:31 → ORD 16:37AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → LGA 23:35AA 1166	7h 04m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSN 18:32 → DTW 20:58DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	52m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	4h 08m	70%	61%
United Details →	MSN 17:45 → ORD 19:00UA 4603 · flown by GoJet	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 20:03 → LGA 23:17UA 2827	4h 32m	64%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON