Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3166 MSN 05:56 → MSP 07:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5174 MSN 14:59 → MSP 16:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3166 Delta	MSN 05:56	MSP 07:08	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 09:06	MSP 10:31	7%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:03	MSP 13:33	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
9E 5174 Endeavor	MSN 14:59	MSP 16:28	8%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON