Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3819 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3819 MSN 05:06 → ORD 06:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1851 MSN 16:28 → ORD 17:41 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3819 Envoy	MSN 05:06	ORD 06:29	5%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 06:41	ORD 07:54	11%	5%	1.2%	89%
MQ 4216 Envoy	MSN 07:21	ORD 08:33	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:40	ORD 07:45	11%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 09:46	ORD 10:45	14%	3%	1.3%	79%
UA 394 United	MSN 08:08	ORD 09:11	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 20:11	ORD 21:17	18%	5%	1.8%	69%
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:38	ORD 15:49	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:31	ORD 16:37	21%	5%	1.9%	41%
UA 5383 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:39	ORD 13:55	21%	7%	1.3%	70%
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 13:03	ORD 14:12	22%	7%	1.2%	82%
OO 5586 SkyWest	MSN 18:36	ORD 19:41	22%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:28	ORD 17:41	23%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 4603 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MSN 17:45	ORD 19:00	41%	18%	5.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON