Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 634 American Flight history →	MSN 08:00	PHX 09:32	21%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 1351 American	MSN 14:38	PHX 16:18	24%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSN 09:06 → MSP 10:31DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284	8h 32m	100%	87%
United Details →	MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631	7h 22m	99%	82%
United Details →	MSN 06:41 → ORD 07:54UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 10:18 → PHX 12:09UA 2225	7h 28m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	8h 28m	98%	80%
United Details →	MSN 06:40 → ORD 07:45UA 2137	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → PHX 13:02UA 2164	8h 22m	99%	79%
American Details →	MSN 12:14 → DCA 15:40AA 5221 · flown by PSA	2h 21m Washington	DCA 18:01 → PHX 19:50AA 3191	9h 36m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MSN 13:46 → ATL 16:59DL 2681	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → PHX 21:49DL 929	10h 03m	99%	74%
United Details →	MSN 06:29 → EWR 09:50UA 3482 · flown by Republic	3h 18m Newark	EWR 13:08 → PHX 15:25UA 370	10h 56m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON