Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1026 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1026 MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest G4 4762 MSO 19:44 → DEN 21:52 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1026 United Flight history →	MSO 06:05	DEN 08:11	8%	6%	0.6%	92%
UA 5484 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 10:36	DEN 12:48	11%	7%	0.6%	97%
OO 5849 SkyWest	MSO 17:20	DEN 19:41	16%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 1436 United Flight history →	MSO 14:21	DEN 16:26	20%	8%	0.6%	79%
G4 4762 Allegiant	MSO 19:44	DEN 21:52	21%	14%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON