Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3677 at 13:32, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3677 Envoy	MSO 13:32	DFW 17:49	22%	8%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DFW 13:31DL 2970	6h 36m	97%	85%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:37 → DFW 12:40UA 1350	5h 35m	97%	84%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Denver	DEN 13:55 → DFW 17:01UA 578	5h 25m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	7h 08m	99%	65%
United Details →	MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436	2h 24m Denver	DEN 18:50 → DFW 21:56UA 1565	6h 35m	93%	62%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	9h 02m	87%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON