tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974 10h 04m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 1h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 29m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 39m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 52m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m San Francisco SFO 21:27 → LAX 22:49UA 1079 7h 30m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436 3h 09m Denver DEN 19:35 → LAX 20:57UA 1460 7h 36m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636 3h 13m Chicago ORD 20:18 → LAX 22:53UA 2499 11h 19m 87% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON