Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2907 Delta Flight history →	MSO 05:55	MSP 09:28	7%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 362 Delta Flight history →	MSO 15:28	MSP 19:05	10%	4%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 29m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 35m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → MSP 20:58DL 2935	6h 43m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Denver	DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732	5h 18m	93%	80%
United Details →	MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436	1h 29m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	5h 39m	89%	72%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	8h 07m	87%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON