Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 636 United Flight history →	MSO 12:34	ORD 17:05	24%	10%	1.1%	84%
MQ 3487 Envoy	MSO 12:50	ORD 17:21	24%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	1h 24m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 10m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533	8h 10m	100%	80%
United Details →	MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436	3h 53m Denver	DEN 20:19 → ORD 23:41UA 377	8h 20m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	MSO 13:15 → SLC 14:57DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → ORD 21:20DL 2413	7h 05m	99%	70%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Denver	DEN 16:29 → ORD 20:14UA 675	8h 38m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563	5h 24m	92%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON