Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3207 at 13:19, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3207 SkyWest	MSO 13:19	PDX 13:56	14%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	7h 45m	96%	89%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 05m Denver	DEN 11:16 → PDX 12:58UA 644	7h 53m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337	8h 10m	100%	84%
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 29m	99%	81%
United Details →	MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436	3h 04m Denver	DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498	7h 54m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:43UA 1227	5h 24m	74%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON