tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 8h 30m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 44m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 36m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → SAN 22:32UA 442 7h 13m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 25m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SAN 20:22UA 1577 5h 03m 68% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON