Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5417 at 16:19, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5417 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSO 16:19	SFO 17:50	28%	15%	1.0%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 14m	97%	81%
United Details →	MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026	3h 09m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 59m	100%	76%
United Details →	MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	7h 54m	100%	72%
United Details →	MSO 14:21 → DEN 16:26UA 1436	3h 08m Denver	DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389	7h 59m	95%	61%
United Details →	MSO 12:34 → ORD 17:05UA 636	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179	9h 44m	85%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON