tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 730 at 15:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 730 Delta Flight history → MSP 15:15 ABQ 16:54 10% 3% 0.4% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 15:44 → ABQ 17:33DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ABQ 15:07DL 1109 9h 07m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 34m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594 6h 52m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:18 → ABQ 12:58AA 3319 7h 39m 93% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39AA 1395 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:52 → ABQ 11:46AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 6h 46m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 1h 52m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 8h 50m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 58m Chicago ORD 08:42 → ABQ 10:54UA 723 5h 54m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSP 17:52 → DFW 20:30AA 2406 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → ABQ 22:23AA 1321 5h 31m 66% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON