Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 411 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:18	ANC 16:49	13%	3%	0.5%	73%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	ANC 21:00	17%	4%	0.5%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	13h 22m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 09:51 → ANC 12:49AS 1680	9h 46m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	10h 20m	99%	73%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461	11h 21m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:45AS 582	9h 49m	98%	71%
American Details →	MSP 10:19 → DFW 12:50AA 2220	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:15 → ANC 19:23AA 399	12h 04m	98%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON