Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1062 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1062 MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3046 MSP 09:51 → ATL 13:26 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 05:20	ATL 08:54	5%	1%	0.4%	93%
DL 1039 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ATL 10:32	7%	1%	0.4%	90%
DL 1052 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:26	ATL 11:54	7%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 1046 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:34	ATL 14:06	10%	2%	0.4%	85%
DL 9961 Delta	MSP 23:14	ATL 02:51	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1048 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	ATL 16:22	11%	2%	0.4%	81%
DL 1036 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:18	ATL 21:06	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 2021 Delta	MSP 16:43	ATL 20:13	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1026 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:37	ATL 22:28	17%	4%	0.7%	78%
F9 3046 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 09:51	ATL 13:26	25%	5%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON