Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 695 MSP 10:27 → AUS 13:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2749 MSP 18:15 → AUS 20:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 695 Southwest	MSP 10:27	AUS 13:19	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3950 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:00	AUS 09:55	10%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:50	AUS 14:40	12%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:15	AUS 20:55	18%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON