Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2181 at 09:04, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2181 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:04	AVL 12:24	7%	2%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → AVL 14:39UA 1992	7h 54m	99%	86%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	7h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182	7h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037	7h 07m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON