Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2941 at 18:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2941 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	BIL 19:59	11%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	98%	89%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:35UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	97%	88%
American Details →	MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39AA 1395	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:47 → BIL 12:54AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	7h 54m	97%	85%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 24m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703	5h 17m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → BIL 22:53DL 1340	5h 43m	95%	81%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	8h 02m	98%	79%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	47m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	4h 43m	84%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON