Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3069 MSP 07:07 → BNA 09:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1144 MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3069 Southwest	MSP 07:07	BNA 09:18	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2724 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	BNA 08:58	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 2101 Delta	MSP 13:02	BNA 15:10	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2550 Southwest	MSP 12:20	BNA 14:20	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1144 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:20	BNA 22:26	10%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON