Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2982 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:39	BOI 13:44	13%	3%	0.4%	86%
DL 2488 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:55	BOI 21:02	16%	5%	0.5%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → BOI 12:53DL 874	8h 33m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	2h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest	8h 40m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	8h 28m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:23DL 2095	5h 13m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 51m Seattle	SEA 14:50 → BOI 17:24DL 4127 · flown by SkyWest	9h 19m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:21 → BOI 22:40DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	3h 49m Seattle	SEA 16:49 → BOI 19:23DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest	9h 13m	100%	84%
American Details →	MSP 14:44 → PHX 16:10AA 408	2h 36m Phoenix	PHX 18:46 → BOI 22:04AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest	8h 20m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	50m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → BOI 20:07AS 2109 · flown by Horizon	6h 11m	74%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON