tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1749 at 12:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1749 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:45 BUF 15:48 11% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756 3h 03m New York LGA 19:47 → BUF 21:11DL 5792 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476 2h 41m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978 5h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266 8h 13m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969 2h 50m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor 7h 14m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 3h 58m Charlotte CLT 13:58 → BUF 15:49AA 2442 8h 30m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 47m Denver DEN 17:35 → BUF 22:47UA 731 8h 11m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BUF 13:13UA 4382 · flown by GoJet 6h 13m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → MSP 09:23 → ORD 10:51AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 3h 43m Chicago ORD 14:34 → BUF 17:28AA 3013 7h 05m 98% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON