Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:59	BZN 12:35	6%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2954 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	BZN 19:44	8%	3%	0.6%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	97%	87%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 09m Denver	DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513	7h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406	9h 00m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	6h 44m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	99%	80%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	3h 44m Chicago	ORD 16:59 → BZN 19:18UA 1920	8h 46m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971	4h 55m	84%	75%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	51m Seattle	SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	80%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON