Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5290 MSP 22:08 → CID 23:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest SY 8013 MSP 07:54 → CID 08:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5290 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 22:08	CID 23:17	7%	2%	1.2%	72%
DL 4899 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 10:10	CID 11:26	7%	2%	0.9%	70%
DL 4906 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 14:26	CID 15:50	8%	2%	0.9%	71%
SY 8013 Sun Country	MSP 07:54	CID 08:53	9%	1%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON