Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1912 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1912 MSP 07:05 → CLT 10:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1671 MSP 15:01 → CLT 18:35 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1912 Delta	MSP 07:05	CLT 10:35	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2929 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:14	CLT 23:44	10%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 894 American Flight history →	MSP 06:19	CLT 10:00	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2819 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:55	CLT 16:27	15%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 1672 American	MSP 11:08	CLT 14:43	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1671 American	MSP 15:01	CLT 18:35	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON