Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2958 MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2961 MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:36	DCA 11:00	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
OH 5391 PSA	MSP 07:53	DCA 11:49	8%	3%	1.4%	no record
DL 2983 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:25	DCA 13:48	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:37	DCA 18:09	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2961 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:30	DCA 23:58	11%	3%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON