Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4384 at 06:47 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4384 MSP 06:47 → DEN 08:03 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 9101 MSP 18:52 → DEN 20:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4384 Southwest	MSP 06:47	DEN 08:03	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2041 United Flight history →	MSP 05:45	DEN 06:53	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 4758 Southwest	MSP 10:32	DEN 11:48	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1891 United Flight history →	MSP 09:05	DEN 10:21	9%	2%	0.5%	83%
F9 1291 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 06:52	DEN 08:13	10%	2%	0.8%	76%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:00	DEN 10:09	10%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 2927 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	DEN 12:05	10%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	MSP 13:36	DEN 14:48	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 1025 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:27	DEN 15:30	11%	2%	0.4%	80%
F9 3199 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 13:16	DEN 14:30	15%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 2931 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:15	DEN 19:27	15%	3%	0.4%	66%
WN 3076 Southwest	MSP 17:22	DEN 18:38	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1704 United	MSP 17:06	DEN 18:18	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
B6 9101 JetBlue	MSP 18:52	DEN 20:07	18%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON