Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1395 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1395 MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2406 MSP 17:52 → DFW 20:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1395 American Flight history →	MSP 06:00	DFW 08:39	8%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:54	DFW 10:23	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2970 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	DFW 13:31	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 1654 American	MSP 08:00	DFW 10:34	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2220 American Flight history →	MSP 10:19	DFW 12:50	15%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 2967 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	DFW 22:21	22%	10%	5.1%	76%
AA 1668 American	MSP 15:13	DFW 17:47	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
F9 3223 Frontier Flight history →	MSP 19:48	DFW 22:24	26%	11%	7.0%	71%
AA 2406 American Flight history →	MSP 17:52	DFW 20:30	30%	17%	11.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON