Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1461 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1461 MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1484 MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1461 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:04	DTW 08:47	5%	2%	0.4%	93%
DL 1433 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:00	DTW 11:42	8%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 1519 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:59	DTW 15:41	9%	3%	0.4%	91%
9E 5556 Endeavor	MSP 12:01	DTW 14:47	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1476 Delta Flight history →	MSP 16:09	DTW 18:54	12%	4%	0.4%	80%
DL 8906 Delta	MSP 15:54	DTW 18:38	13%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 1484 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:46	DTW 22:32	16%	5%	0.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON