Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1870 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1870 MSP 06:11 → EWR 09:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2866 MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1870 United	MSP 06:11	EWR 09:57	5%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2864 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:05	EWR 10:45	6%	2%	1.0%	89%
DL 2846 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	EWR 23:56	14%	6%	1.0%	73%
UA 8132 United	MSP 10:11	EWR 13:55	14%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1818 United	MSP 20:01	EWR 23:48	15%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 2866 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:10	EWR 16:53	21%	7%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON