tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Hebron, leaving 07:14, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 673 Delta Flight history → MSP 08:50 FLL 13:25 15% 3% 4.7% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 59m Denver DEN 09:52 → FLL 15:57UA 1214 9h 12m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:51UA 1374 9h 15m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:44UA 1384 9h 39m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:59 → DTW 15:41DL 1519 2h 44m Detroit DTW 18:25 → FLL 21:27DL 2296 7h 28m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 2h 54m New York LGA 15:30 → FLL 18:57DL 2321 9h 02m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 8h 07m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 39m Houston IAH 12:09 → FLL 15:51UA 1982 7h 16m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433 1h 28m Detroit DTW 13:10 → FLL 16:14DL 1294 6h 14m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON