Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 125 MSP 08:24 → FSD 09:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1694 MSP 21:50 → FSD 22:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 125 SkyWest	MSP 08:24	FSD 09:33	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3763 SkyWest	MSP 11:21	FSD 12:33	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3905 SkyWest	MSP 18:45	FSD 19:57	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	MSP 14:41	FSD 15:46	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1694 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:50	FSD 22:52	11%	4%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON