Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 09:20, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 312 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	HNL 13:43	10%	3%	0.4%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 13:04 → LAX 15:00DL 2974	3h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	13h 18m	100%	85%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 10:16 → HNL 13:59UA 219	12h 59m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	12h 23m	99%	81%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 39m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	11h 08m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 09m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	13h 03m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 00m	94%	79%
American Details →	MSP 07:41 → PHX 09:00AA 3143	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693	11h 57m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON