tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3787 SkyWest MSP 20:19 ICT 22:17 12% 4% 0.8% no record
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 13:26 ICT 15:20 12% 4% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 3h 02m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → ICT 16:34DL 828 8h 08m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 59m Denver DEN 17:47 → ICT 20:21UA 1788 6h 45m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387 1h 02m Seattle SEA 09:00 → ICT 14:24AS 2117 · flown by Horizon 8h 21m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39AA 1395 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ICT 10:55AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 88% 73%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:19 → DFW 12:50AA 2220 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:25 → ICT 15:57AA 2304 5h 38m 94% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSP 17:52 → DFW 20:30AA 2406 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → ICT 22:48AA 5086 · flown by PSA 4h 56m 56% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON