Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2392 at 10:15, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2392 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:15	JAX 14:06	8%	2%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	3h 12m Denver	DEN 10:05 → JAX 15:39UA 1451	8h 54m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024	7h 05m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	2h 09m Boston	BOS 16:00 → JAX 19:06DL 5657 · flown by Republic	8h 01m	98%	81%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 10:28 → JAX 13:57UA 8113	6h 57m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 14:07 → JAX 15:19DL 2990	7h 19m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460	1h 40m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	7h 02m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	3h 16m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	8h 49m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:34 → JAX 17:50DL 2440	6h 16m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON