Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2974 MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2122 MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2974 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:03	LAX 14:59	8%	2%	0.5%	96%
DL 2119 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:30	LAX 13:23	9%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 2110 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:06	LAX 09:00	10%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 2102 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:20	LAX 11:10	11%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2122 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:10	LAX 20:05	13%	3%	0.5%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	55m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	5h 39m	88%	74%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:30 → SLC 16:21DL 2658	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	5h 37m	85%	67%
Delta Details →	MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284	46m Phoenix	PHX 16:24 → LAX 17:56DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	76%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON