Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1730 MSP 07:00 → MCO 11:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2309 MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1730 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	MCO 11:13	9%	3%	4.5%	90%
DL 1208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:27	MCO 13:40	13%	3%	3.8%	80%
DL 2225 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	MCO 17:04	15%	4%	1.2%	75%
DL 2309 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:45	MCO 23:58	16%	4%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON