Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4063 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 11:05	MEM 13:17	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 4035 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 20:05	MEM 22:15	12%	4%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 10:13 → MEM 11:15DL 1627	5h 11m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	1h 56m Nashville	BNA 10:54 → MEM 12:00DL 8930	5h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	7h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700	6h 43m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:11DL 733	7h 11m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:59 → DTW 15:41DL 1519	2h 08m Detroit	DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049	5h 56m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	6h 22m	99%	82%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 18:58 → ORD 20:26UA 1237	54m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	4h 23m	60%	45%
American Details →	MSP 17:52 → DFW 20:30AA 2406	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07AA 1758	5h 15m	68%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON