Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5174 MSP 12:56 → MSN 14:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1599 MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5174 Endeavor	MSP 12:56	MSN 14:18	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 4103 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:21	MSN 08:38	12%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 4102 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:12	MSN 11:19	13%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 1599 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:24	MSN 22:31	13%	5%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON