tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2695 at 15:36, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2695 Delta Flight history → MSP 15:36 MSY 18:20 13% 3% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 31m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 25m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 39m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 57m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSY 22:34UA 1541 8h 58m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 15:43 → MSY 21:28DL 2154 9h 58m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 8h 00m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 3h 12m Chicago ORD 10:56 → MSY 13:23UA 1532 7h 23m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON