Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	5h 17m	93%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 44m Denver	DEN 09:37 → MYR 14:56UA 454	8h 11m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182	7h 14m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:47DL 2649	48m Boston	BOS 11:35 → MYR 13:53DL 3087	5h 53m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON