Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 3791 at 18:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3791 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:10	OKC 20:15	16%	7%	3.8%	78%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 09:05	OKC 11:16	25%	9%	0.0%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	3h 12m Denver	DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → OKC 21:07DL 3703 · flown by SkyWest	8h 38m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490	5h 48m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → OKC 14:56DL 2862	7h 56m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 04m Denver	DEN 13:25 → OKC 16:10UA 1656	7h 05m	99%	80%
American Details →	MSP 14:44 → PHX 16:10AA 408	2h 46m Phoenix	PHX 18:56 → OKC 23:15AA 6320 · flown by SkyWest	8h 31m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	8h 42m	99%	73%
American Details →	MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39AA 1395	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → OKC 11:53AA 3099	5h 53m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MSP 17:52 → DFW 20:30AA 2406	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458	4h 41m	70%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON